Posts by Lee Elder

103

New Research at AJWRB

by Lee Elder in

the latest research article published at ajwrb estimates the number of jehovah's witnesses who have died from following or being coerced to follow watchtower's blood policy.

the numbers are staggering.

http://ajwrb.org/jehovahs-witnesses-and-blood-tens-of-thousands-dead-in-hidden-tragedy.

Lee Elder

The methodology is sound and credible. We'll just have to agree to disagree.

Here is an email I received today from an interested reader:

If we have a given population (JWs) with a unique attribute that is suspected to have a certain effect compared to the general population (non-JWs) that does not have that unique attribute then we need to find a means of measuring the suspected effect within a defined population that represents both the given and general populations.

The article published by Beliaev and company in the July 2012 issue of VoxSanguinis is useful because it gives a matched set of patients with one set of patients representing the unique population (JWs) and the other set of patients representing the general population (non-JWs). The sole difference between these two patient sets was that one refused transfusion of red cells to treat severe anemia and the other set did not.
Beliaev and company found that in the region from which their medical data came there were 19 deaths over a 10-year period over and beyond what the matched set of patients experienced in the general population. Keep in mind this is a hard number. 19 deaths were due to refusing transfusion of red cells to treat severe anemia. More than 19 deaths were suffered within the set of JW patients. But 19 of them were found to be due to the unique attribute of the JW population to refuse transfusion of red cells to treat severe anemia. If we divide these 19 deaths by 10 (the number of years the study gathered data for) it results in 1.9 deaths per year due solely to refusing transfusion of red cells to treat severe anemia.
The region from which this data was gathered represents 57 percent of the total population of New Zealand. The JW population in New Zealand for the 10-year period averaged 12,700 per year (this is the number of “publishers” not the total number of all persons associated with the religion; infants, bible studies, etc.). 57 percent of 12,700 is 7,239. Hence, compared to the general population the JW population suffered 1.9 deaths per 7,239 of its published number of “publishers” due to refusing transfusion of red cells to treat severe anemia.
The ratio of 1.9 deaths per 7,239 publishers is not an estimate. These are hard numbers. 1.9 is the actual average annual number of deaths known to have occurred solely due to refusing transfusion of red cells to treat severe anemia. The 7,239 is the actual published average number of JWs per year for the same period and population from which the deaths occurred.
From here it’s basic math to calculate an estimate of deaths suffered by the great population of JWs for refusing transfusion of red cells to treat severe anemia. The numbers are staggering, and they’re hidden in plain sight.
What makes an estimate based on these hard numbers conservative? Several things. For one, the average life span for the general population from which the data was collected is very high (very good), which means the numbers are not skewed in an upward direction due to poor healthcare or living conditions found in other population regions of the world. Also, the 1.9 value assumes there was not even a single death among JWs suffered in the given population during the same 10-year period at any of the other scores of hospitals in the same population region from which the data came, each of which treats patients with severe anemia, hence using the 1.9 value does, if anything, skew the estimate downward. Another thing this estimate ignores is even a single death in the same region due to refusing products rendered from blood to treat diseases other than severe anemia. Again, if anything this tamps any estimate downward rather than upward.

36

White supremacy is an ideology of peace

by OneEyedJoe in

i'm tired of hearing these constant attacks on white supremacists after the events in charlottesville.

why are moderate white supremacists being lumped in together and sharing the blame for the actions of one reprehensible man that misinterpreted the ideals of white supremacy and became violent?

clearly the motivation of such attacks on white supremacists is nothing other than racism.

Lee Elder

Tell me this is satire please.

12

Watchtower Coercion of Non-JWs

by Lee Elder in

it is widely known that the watchtower coerces compliance with its deadly blood dogma.

a less known fact is that this pressure is further extended to non-believing family members of jw's.

a new story at ajwrb recounts how jw elders nearly cost the life of one unbeliever when he fell gravely anemic.

Lee Elder

It is widely known that the Watchtower coerces compliance with its deadly blood dogma. A less known fact is that this pressure is further extended to non-believing family members of JW's. A new story at AJWRB recounts how JW elders nearly cost the life of one unbeliever when he fell gravely anemic. Subscribe at AJWRB to receive the latest updates and experiences.

http://ajwrb.org/jw-elders-pressure-non-believers-to-conform

103

New Research at AJWRB

by Lee Elder in

the latest research article published at ajwrb estimates the number of jehovah's witnesses who have died from following or being coerced to follow watchtower's blood policy.

the numbers are staggering.

http://ajwrb.org/jehovahs-witnesses-and-blood-tens-of-thousands-dead-in-hidden-tragedy.

Lee Elder

Read the article, read the references, read the thread. We haven't made any attempt to do anything other than present a conservative estimate. Not sure what else you'd like me to say. The numbers are what they are. The fact that you find them disturbing probably says more about you then it does about the estimate. Technically, the only thing I have personally done is bring these estimates current through 2016 using the method the original investigators used. Your issue is really with them I think. You'd like to see an estimate that breaks down risk for every type of surgery or illness, year by year, country by country, etc, etc, etc. Wouldn't that be lovely? Of course its impossible to do that, so therefore we should just give the Watchtower Society a pass? Well that is not going to happen. They clearly have thousands upon thousands of deaths they are directly responsible for. We might not be able to come up with an exact figure for how many died in the Civil War, World Wars, Holocaust, etc, etc, etc. We still do our best with the data we have. I think you have to accept that John. Its not a perfect world. We have enough to know that there is a huge problem.

103

New Research at AJWRB

by Lee Elder in

the latest research article published at ajwrb estimates the number of jehovah's witnesses who have died from following or being coerced to follow watchtower's blood policy.

the numbers are staggering.

http://ajwrb.org/jehovahs-witnesses-and-blood-tens-of-thousands-dead-in-hidden-tragedy.

Lee Elder

To characterize what we have published as self professed "gospel" is at the very least a gross mischaracterization that hardly deserves a response. Check the meaning of the word. We have been careful to state that it is only an estimate, and that there are both known and unknown factors that would alter the estimate.

The single greatest limitation of this analysis is that it likely grossly underestimates the actual number of fatalities. Bear in mind, we didn't count as much as one death for the entire period of 1945-1961. A period when "non-blood" alternative therapies did not exist for all practical purposes.

As previously said, please feel free to take a look at what is out there and make your own attempt to use existing studies to estimate the impact. Let's see what you come up with.

103

New Research at AJWRB

by Lee Elder in

the latest research article published at ajwrb estimates the number of jehovah's witnesses who have died from following or being coerced to follow watchtower's blood policy.

the numbers are staggering.

http://ajwrb.org/jehovahs-witnesses-and-blood-tens-of-thousands-dead-in-hidden-tragedy.

Lee Elder

John: If you think you can do a better job. Go for it.

103

New Research at AJWRB

by Lee Elder in

the latest research article published at ajwrb estimates the number of jehovah's witnesses who have died from following or being coerced to follow watchtower's blood policy.

the numbers are staggering.

http://ajwrb.org/jehovahs-witnesses-and-blood-tens-of-thousands-dead-in-hidden-tragedy.

Lee Elder

steve2:

Jehovah's Witnesses have aggressively pursued relationships with the "bloodless" surgery centers (many of which are directed by and employ JW's). High risk patients will almost always be directed to these centers where they can almost be guaranteed to receive the kind of treatment they seek, whether or not it makes sense medically. The probability of involving the authorities is thus significantly muted.

darkspilver:

You correctly note that, "the average number of publishers during the 2016 service year was 8,132,358" and that this number includes children. There are also a large number of JW's who due to age and health are no longer "publishers". Additionally, there are millions of inactive and former JW's, many of whom remain sympathetic towards the blood policy thanks to decades of continual indoctrination and implanted blood phobias. We will always be working with estimates regardless of how hard we try to nail an exact number down. It simply cannot be done. That does not mean that we should not try.

103

New Research at AJWRB

by Lee Elder in

the latest research article published at ajwrb estimates the number of jehovah's witnesses who have died from following or being coerced to follow watchtower's blood policy.

the numbers are staggering.

http://ajwrb.org/jehovahs-witnesses-and-blood-tens-of-thousands-dead-in-hidden-tragedy.

Lee Elder

There are inherent limitations when developing an estimate of something as complex as the Watchtower's partial blood transfusion ban. Of course it would be ideal if we had better data that would permit us to be more exact than we have been. There are both known limitations, and unknown limitations. With respects to Dr. Muramoto's method, here are his written comments to me:

"This kind of extrapolation is used all the time in various advertisements in medical field. Drug A can prevent heart attack 1% better than drug B. Then using other statistics, the drug company of drug A advertises that drug A can save X thousand of lives every year. This advertisement is not necessarily false, but critics are ready to say that it is misleading because those statistics are taken from different contexts, and the advertisement suggests that drug A actually saves X thousand of lives, which is not. So, our campaign is not false as a campaign, but is also rightly criticized as misleading for the same reasons."

With respect to the estimate prepared by Marvin Shilmer, we have fewer limitations. Belieav's data covers a much wider scope than Kitchens which only considered surgery. Belieav's data is related to anemia. Anemia is the great killer of JW's in our experience. The aim of the study was to develop a mortality risk stratification instrument for severely anemic JW patients so as to predict mortality. The JW patients were self identified, and seeking medical care without blood. A total of 10,786 admissions among 3529 JW patients was identified. Of these 108 met eligibility criteria. Their average age was 58.6. 70% of the cases involved surgery. None of the cases involved pediatrics or JW adolescents. It is a reasonable assumption that the study did not include JW women giving birth.

The data is drawn from four major public hospitals in New Zealand from 1998 - 2007. So we are looking at a very high standard of care. We're dealing with JW patients with access to a wide range of high tech alternative therapies that significantly reduce mortality and morbidity in the JW population. It is a given that this standard of care is not available in developing countries, hence it can reasonably assumed that actual mortality and morbidity are significantly higher among the overall JW population.

This is not a perfect study either. It has limitations. It is, however, the best study presently available. If and when better studies become available, we will use those. Even then, however, we will always be making assumptions that can be criticized. I think a good comparison would be with respects to evolution. There are many assumptions made that sometimes turn out to be false. Watchtower and other Creationists can rightly criticize these failure and limitations. None of that, however, alters the fact the evolution is the mechanism by which life forms change, adapt and gradually become other forms of life.

Likewise with our estimate of deaths related to the Watchtower blood policy. We are making assumptions, some of which could be wrong. A host of known and unknown factors could either increase or decrease the true morbidity rate. We suspect that ultimately these factors will tend to increase the estimated annual morbidity of 0.015% - it may be significantly higher. There is a low probability that the unknown factors could decrease the morbidity, but the probability remains.It is our sincere belief that the estimates of Dr. Muramoto, and Marvin Shilmer are reasonably accurate and conservative. We will use and defend them, and if a better study or estimate can be done in the future, we will use it.

103

New Research at AJWRB

by Lee Elder in

the latest research article published at ajwrb estimates the number of jehovah's witnesses who have died from following or being coerced to follow watchtower's blood policy.

the numbers are staggering.

http://ajwrb.org/jehovahs-witnesses-and-blood-tens-of-thousands-dead-in-hidden-tragedy.

Lee Elder

Dr. Muramoto, M.D. is a retired board certified neurologist and medical ethicist, as well as a member of the volunteer faculty at the Center for Ethics in Health Care, Oregon Health and Science University. Dr. Muramoto, Marvin Shilmer, AJWRB and myself have never claimed that these numbers are anything more than an estimate. Your statement that they are "sensationalized" is patently false. Quite to the contrary - they are conservative. If one were to factor in morbidity in 3rd world/developing countries where a significant percentage of Jehovah's Witnesses are found, these numbers would be much, much higher. Same thing applies to trauma, childbirth and chronic diseases of the blood. The numbers related to childbirth alone are simply staggering, and we will be drawing attention to that in the near future. It is time for the world to cut away the camouflage that is created by Watchtower's organizational structure/compartmentalization and see it for the death cult it truly is.

103

New Research at AJWRB

by Lee Elder in

the latest research article published at ajwrb estimates the number of jehovah's witnesses who have died from following or being coerced to follow watchtower's blood policy.

the numbers are staggering.

http://ajwrb.org/jehovahs-witnesses-and-blood-tens-of-thousands-dead-in-hidden-tragedy.

Lee Elder

To Never a JW: No one is disfellowshipped over blood anymore. The WT changed their policy in 2000/2001 in this regard. My guess is that you are looking at an older elder's book. The policy as currently administered includes a recognition that an individual makes it known by his choice to use blood (that is any blood product not currently approved for use) that he is no longer one of JWs, hence disassociation. Same thing that we have with respects to one who joins the military or sends in a letter to the congregation ending his or her participation. You are correct that the elders can make a determination that the person is repentant. That is going to depend on the individuals involved. There are some elders that don't feel its possible to repent from this sin, and probably others like myself who would not have a problem in giving the person a pass.